Search

Economic Evaluation of BOT Projects

Posted in Highway Engineering, Project Reports, Research Papers | Email This Post Email This Post |
Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Economic Evaluation of proposed Barwah-Dhamnod Toll Road by Dr.(Mrs.)Vandana Tare (Professor, Deptt. of Civil Engg. S.G.S.I.T.S., Indore (M.P) and Er. Raj Mohammad Khan (M.E. (Civil) Transportation Engg., Indore (M.P).

ABSTRACT
Road Traffic has been growing with very rapid rate, hence the traffic intensity and volume on the road is high. The present road network is necessary to improve to accommodate the future traffic and to provide the good riding quality. The development of Infrastructure has been done by the public sector through the fund collected from taxes, but huge fund are required for modernization of road network. Due to decreasing financial resources, government is not in position to invest the funds in those developments. This has brought to focus the need of attracting private investment in road in India.

The Barwah-Dhamnod road is proposed on B.O.T. system, starts from Barwah on Indore-Khandwa Road SH-27 and passing through Mandleshwar and joining NH-3 at Dhamnod. The total length of the road is 63 Kms and road passes through the districts of Khargon and Dhar. The details of road section Barwah-Dhamnod Road under study were collected through road inventory survey. The Traffic volume survey & Willingness to pay survey were also conducted on this road. The analysis of traffic volume data was done by projection up to 15 years. The need for widening of road from single lane to two lane is justified as per the capacity of road. Based on the data collection to achieve the toll fixation rates & to estimate the concession period, a methodology is adopted which includes generation of different module. Each module calculates the required results.

1-INTRODUCTION
Road Traffic has been growing with very rapid rate i.e. 8 % per annum, hence the traffic intensity and volume on the road is high. The present road network is necessary to improve to accommodate the future traffic and to provide the good riding quality. The development of Infrastructure has been done by the public sector through the fund collected from taxes, but huge fund are required for modernization of road network.

Due to decreasing financial resources, government is not in position to invest the funds in those developments. This has brought to focus the need of attracting private investment in road in India. The funds provided by private sector for improvement of road condition are recovered from road user by toll tax. After recovery period that particular road section is transferred to government. This Idea is called as BOT system.

Advertisements

2-DETAILS OF ROAD UNDER STUDY
Barwah-Dhamnod Road starts from Barwah on Indore-Khandwa Road SH-27 and passing through Mandleshwar and joining NH-3 at Dhamnod. The total length of this road is about 63 Kms and passes through the districts of Khargon and Dhar and having mainly plain terrain with some sections in rolling terrain. Table 1 gives details of roads intersect the proposed road at locations as under:

Table1: Details of Major road Crossing Proposed Road Section

Kms Roads
Km 0 SH-27 from Indore to Khandwa at km 60+200 at Barwaha
Km 26 MDR to Balwara
Km 40+800 SH-1 from Mhow to Mandleshwar at Mandleshwar with km 0
Km 49+200 MDR to Mehatwara at Maheshwar
Km 63 Joins NH-3 at Km 77+200 at Dhamnod

2.1-CRUST DETAILS
The details of road section Barwah-Dhamnod Road under study were collected through Test Pit. Existing Crust Composition on present road had found as follows.

Thickness Composition
225 mm Subgrade soil
150 mm WBM
75 mm BM+SDBC

2.2-ROAD INVENTORY SURVEY
The details of road section were collected through road inventory survey. In this survey details of Terrain classification, land use, villages, Formation width, Carriageway type-width- condition of road, Details of cross roads, Tree distance No. of Trees etc. has been collected for every kms.

Advertisements

2.3-TRAFFIC VOLUME SURVEY
Traffic Volume survey was carried out at Km 2 near Barwah to know the volume of various categories of vehicles plying on the road. Format for Traffic Volume survey is also prepared. Table 2 gives the details of Traffic volume Survey in terms of Average Daily Traffic (ADT).

Table 2 : Average Daily Traffic at location km2

Type of Vehicle

ADT

Mini Bus

61

Bus

101

Car/Jeep/Van

454

Two Wheeler

2290

Auto Rickshaw

68

LCV

110

2 Axle Truck

202

3 Axle Truck

41

M Axle Truck

4

Tractor with Trailer

85

Tractor without Trailer

22

Cycle

942

Cycle Rickshaw

1

Hand Cart

7

Animal Drawn (Cart)

202

Others

4

Total Vehicles

4594

Total PCU

5545

2.4-WILLINGNESS TO PAY (WTP) SURVEY
Willingness to pay survey was also done on the Barwah Dhamnod Road to know the opinion of road users. The survey result reveals that if the road is made two lanes, the traffic from other roads: Balwara road, Mhow to Mandleshwar road, Mehatwara to Maheshwar road will be diverted to this road. Apart from this there will also be some generated traffic. The survey also indicated that if the road is made two lanes then road users would like to pay reasonable toll.

2.5-BENKELMAN BEAM DEFLECTION STUDY
The Benkelman Beam Deflection test is done on the selected sites and the deflection evaluated for all the point. Characteristic deflection as evaluated from BBD Test comes out to be 1.427mm

3-METHODOLOGY ADOPTED
Based on the data collection as given above, to achieve the toll fixation rates and to estimate the concession period, a methodology is adopted which includes generation of different module. Each module calculates the required results. Following modules have been developed
Module1: TRFFRCS
Module 2: OVLYDES
Module 3: WIDDES
Module4: COSTANAL
Module5: ECONANAL
Module 6: TOLLFIX

MODULE –1 TRFFRCS
In this Module traffic volume has been projected for Badwah Dhamnod Road for the year 2006 considering growth rate 7.5 % per year as per the IRC guideline. Result shows that after 15 years the traffic is projected up to 16000 PCU per day.

Table 3 : Traffic Projections

Traffic Projections

Calculation of Cumulative Million Standard Axles (CMSA): CMSA have been calculated by considering following parameter:
1. Growth rate :7.5 %
2. VDF for plain terrain :3.5
3. Lane Distribution factor :75 %
4. Directional Distribution Factor :100 %
The result for calculation of CMSA for different type of commercial vehicles is found to be 10 MSA.

Traffic Projection for next 20 years

MODULE 2 OVLYDES
In this module overlay design for the road section has been done. deflection evaluated for all the point. The average of Characteristic deflection (1.247 mm) of all the point has been taken for the design of overlay using MSA is 10. Based on the Benkelman Beam survey data following design thickness have been recommended for overlay of Badwah Dhamnod Road.

Thickness

Composition

60 mm

D.B.M.

40 mm

S.D.B.C.


MODULE 3 WIDDES
In this Module Design of widening has been done. In the road inventory survey it is found that at some portion central widening is needed due to inadequate ROW and at some portion side widening can be adopted.Design for widening portion has been done as per IRC: 37-2001 & the recommended crust thickness for MSA 10 and CBR 7 % are given below:

Layer Composition

Thickness (mm)

GSB

230

WMM

250

DBM

60

SDBC

40

TOTAL

580

MODULE 4 COSTANAL
In this module cost analysis has been done for the entire project on the basis of overlay and widening design as per the rate from MPPWD SOR April 2007. The cost comes out to be Rs 80 lakhs per Km.

MODULE 05 : ECONANAL
In this module Economic Analysis for the proposed road has been done. The construction of roads brings about a variety of benefits that are enjoyed practically by all sectors of the economy. Scarcity of resources and competing demands from various sectors are the important features of a developing economy. It, therefore, becomes necessary to allocate the scarce resources in the most beneficial manner. In view of above, it is necessary to ensure that the projects selected for investment are thoroughly evaluated to determine the economic and social benefits offered by the project and the ease with which the project can be implemented. The economic analysis involves comparison of project costs and benefits under the “with” and “without” project conditions and determining the Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) of the project using discounted cash flow technique. This shows the return, which the society could expect from the proposed investment during the project life, i.e. analysis period.

Inputs parameter
The main aim to carry out economic feasibility is maximizing the returns on investment by determining improvement proposals that lead to minimum total transport costs. Economic evaluation is carried out based on incremental costs and benefits comparing the total net benefits in “Do Minimum” situation with “With Project” situation. The term “Do Minimum” is defined as the base strategy for economic analysis i.e. without project situation. The term “With Project” is defined as widening and strengthening of road. All costs for the economic analysis are given in economic terms thus ignoring transfers in the form of taxes and duties.
Basic inputs to the model are
Analysis period:20 years
Discount rate:12 %
Construction Period:2 years
Improved Road to be opened to traffic in 2009

Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) for 20 years have been computed with the above discussed parameters for the road section is 21 % and the Net Present Value (NPV) is 10949.

MODULE: 06 TOLLFIX
In this module the toll rate has been fixed for the proposed Badwah Dhamnod Road which will be applicable just after the construction period ends & toll started. Toll rates on per km basis for proposed Barwah Dhamnod Road ( 63 KM) are given below. These rates are to be revised as 7 % increase per year for the 20 year concession period. Figure for the above rate analysis is given as follows:

Table 3.3 Toll Rates

Sr. No.

Description

Toll Rates in Rs. per km

Toll Rates in Rs. for proposed road.

1

Private Car , Jeep

0.25

16

2

LCV

0.60

38

3

Empty & Loaded Bus

1.25

79

4

Empty & Loaded Truck

1.50

95

5

Multi Axle Truck Trailer

3.00

189

4-CONCLUSIONS
1. The traffic 5545 PCU/day in the year 2006 is exceeding the capacity of single lane i.e. 2000 PCU per day. Hence there is a need to widen the road. The present traffic is also exceeding the capacity of Intermediate lane i.e. 5000 PCU/day. Hence the road is to be widened up to two lanes.

2. The result of economic evaluation shows that Internal Rate of Return for the road is more than the required discount rate of 12%. The Net Present Value is also positive, so it can be concluded that the road is economically viable for the proposed up gradation & improvements.

3. The Concession period and toll rates have been proposed for the toll road.

4. The developed modules may be used for dealing with similar type of projects

Advertisements

REFERENCES
1. Lin Feng-Bor (1994) “Level-of-Service Analysis of Toll Plazas on Freeway Main Lines” ASCE, Journal of Transportation Engg., Volume 120, Issue 2, pp. 246-263
2. Tiong Robert L. K. (1995) “Competitive Advantage of Equity in BOT” ASCE, Journal of Construction. Engg. and Management., Volume 121, Issue 3, pp. 282-289
3. Al-Deek H. M. ,Mohamed A. A., Radwan A. E. (1997) “Operational Benefits of Electronic Toll Collection: Case Study” ASCE, Journal of Transportation Engg., Volume 123, Issue 6, pp. 467-477
4. Ngee Loh, Robert L. K. Tiong, Jahidul Alum (1997) “Automated Approach to Negotiation of BOT Contracts” ASCE, Journal of Construction. Engg. and Management Volume 11, Issue 2, pp. 121-128
5. Esther Malini (1998)5 “Build Operate Transfer Municipal Bridge Project In India.”Journal of Indian Road Congress Vol. 58 issue 1 pp 87-123 IRC
6. Kumaraswamy Mohan M. (2001) “Procurement Protocols for Public-Private Partnered Projects” ASCE, Journal of Construction. Engg. and Management., Volume 127, Issue 5, pp. 351-358
7. Klodzinski jack and Haitham M. Al-Deek (2002) “New Methodology for Defining Level of Service at Toll Plazas” ASCE, Journal of Transportation Engg., Volume 128, Issue 2, pp. 173-181
8. Anathanarayanan K. (2003) “Risk factor & Management for BOT Road Project in India”. Indian Highway Vol.31 No.12 PP.53-75
9. Burris Mark W. (2003) Application of Variable Tolls on Congested Toll Road ASCE, Journal of Transportation Engg., Volume 129, Issue 4, pp. 354-361
10. Chouhan Sonia (2004) “Evaluation of BOT Project on Highway Sector” , Indian Highway Vol.9 No.11 PP 44-48 ASCE,
11. Wibowo Andreas (2005) “Financial Risk Analysis of Project Finance in Indian Toll Roads” ASCE, Journal of Construction. Engg. and Management., Volume 131, Issue 9, pp. 963-972 ASCE,

We at engineeringcivil.com are grateful to Er. Raj M. Khan for sharing his useful research with us. We hope this will be of great use to highway engineering students.

More Entries :